Counterfactual thinking and recency effects in causal judgment

People tend to judge more recent events, relative earlier ones, as the cause of some particular outcome. For instance, people are inclined that last basket, rather than first, caused team win basketball game. This recency effect, however, reverses in cases overdetermination: outcome when event is individually sufficient but not necessary for In five experiments (N = 5507), we find evidence effect and primacy causal judgment. Traditionally, these effects have been a problem counterfactual views However, argue an extension model judgment explains both effect. line with predictions our extended model, also that, regardless structure, imagine alternative one. Moreover, manipulating this tendency affects judgments ways predicted by model: asking participants weakens interaction between strengthens structure. We discuss results relation work on thinking, modeling, late-preemption.